The Taliban’s full takeover of Afghanistan on 15 August will have profound security implications for the country and wider region for years to come. See the end of this report for a special comment from Sibylline CEO, Justin Crump.
General Overview On 18 July, an investigation conducted by a consortium of international news organisations and human rights groups, including the Washington Post, Le Monde and Amnesty International, secured access to a leaked list of more than 50,000 phone numbers targeted for surveillance with Pegasus, a spyware tool developed by Israeli surveillance firm NSO Group.
SUB: Assessment on the Fallout of the Pegasus Surveillance Scandal Read More »
Background The environmentalist activist group Extinction Rebellion (XR) will hold various “Rebellions” this month in Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and the United Kingdom. As part of the August campaign, the group has planned significant action in Oslo (Norway) and Berlin (Germany) to last several days, known as the “Nordic” and “Central” Rebellions. Financial and oil
SUB: Extinction Rebellion Protests Will Bring Disruption To Urban Centres In August Read More »
Key Takeaways The escalation of Israel and Iran’s “shadow war” threatens to destabilise already fragile political environments in the region, as both nations continue to utilise proxies to bolster influence. It is likely that tensions will intensify cross-border scuffles, particularly in parts of Lebanon and Syria, and flare relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Key Takeaways On 26 July, the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture imposed a six-month ban on the export of certain agricultural products in a bid to relieve the growing pressure on the sector amid the worst drought seen in parts of Central Asia in over a decade. The development is the latest in a series of
SUB: Rising Water Insecurity Will Compound Regional Security Challenges Read More »
Listen on iTunes Listen on PodBean Sibylline’s EMEA Director Jonathan Dunbar is joined by John Breen, Lead Analyst of the Global Risk Team (GRT), and James Hannan, a GRT Analyst, for a discussion on vaccine distribution challenges in Europe. Their conversation unpacks the recent EU vaccine export row with the UK and how it amplified
EU Vaccine Distribution Setbacks Read More »
EVENT On 1 February, the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military) detained State Counsellor and the country’s de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi along with several other senior members of the ruling National League of Democracy (NLD). A year-long state of emergency has been declared, with the military, headed by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, having seized
ALERT: Myanmar – Military power seizure raises unrest risk and rocks investment climate Read More »
Listen on iTunes Listen on PodBean Sibylline’s EMEA Director Jonathan Dunbar is joined by Philip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst and Eloise Scott, Middle East Analyst to discuss the recent developments in the Gulf and how deeper formal ties with Israel and reconciliation in the Qatar blockade provide opportunities for businesses in the region in 2021.
The Gulf in 2021: Opportunities and Risks Read More »
Listen on iTunes Listen on PodBean Sibylline Americas Director Greg Hoobler is joined by James Barth, North America Analyst, Liana Semchuk, Lead Analyst for Europe, and Hugo Yu, Lead Analyst for Asia-Pacific, for a discussion based on events and implications associated with the right-wing insurrection at the US Capitol on January 6. This discussion will
Overview On 4 January, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) seized a South Korean-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz amidst an ongoing dispute over Iranian funds held in South Korean banks. The assets, totaling roughly USD 7 billion, were frozen in September 2019 when the US tightened sanctions on Iranian petrochemical exports, which included
