Developments this week highlight the endurance of Islamist insurgencies in the Philippines and Burkina Faso, sustaining the risk of attacks in the affected regions of both countries. In the Philippines, the presence of Abu Sayyaf in the southernmost provinces drives a high risk of kidnapping, which extends to foreign nationals, as one of the group’s primary means of fundraising.

In both Egypt and Germany, raids over the past week illustrate the threat of terrorist attacks by Islamic extremists. The upcoming Ramadan period (23 April-23 May) somewhat elevates this threat, particularly in the former, where tourist sites and places of worship belonging to the Coptic Christian community have been targeted in recent years.

Government actions in both Hong Kong and Chile have angered the respective protest movements, increasing the prospects for a revival of disruptive and violent demonstrations in the coming months. Meanwhile, the risk of unrest is also rising in Argentina, as socio-economic conditions are set to become more challenging in the months ahead.

Israel now has a formal government for the first time in a year, after a deal was reached this week between Prime Minister Netanyahu and opposition leader Gantz. This will enable a budget to be passed and the management of the response to the Covid-19 pandemic. In Kosovo, however, persistent political divisions are rendering the government formation process more challenging. 

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