In France, the persistent risk of rudimentary terrorist attacks was demonstrated this week by a fatal stabbing, while in Colombia, the threat of domestic terrorism is also likely to endure despite the possibility of the government reopening peace talks with the ELN. In the US, growing concerns about far-right violence are illustrated by the first ever designation of a white supremacist group as a terrorism organisation.
The ISWA insurgency is set to continue in the Lake Chad region despite a military offensive, while in Kashmir, an uptick in the insurgency is driving an elevated threat of clashes between local militants and Indian soldiers.
Relations between Iran and Canada came under additional strain this week over alleged threats to the families of the Canadian victims of Flight 752 who have criticised the Iranian government. Regarding US-Iranian relations, however, the renewal of sanctions waivers for companies working on Iran’s civil nuclear programme will help to prevent a resurgence in tensions. With Europe, too, there is a chance for an improvement in diplomatic ties with Tehran following the first successful INSTEX transaction, which facilitated the provision of medical equipment last week.
Tensions between China and its rival claimants to islands and reefs in the South and East China Seas remain elevated, as demonstrated by two separate collisions involving Japanese and Vietnamese vessels respectively over the past week.
Common crime and low-level protests are on an increasing trajectory in major cities in both Mexico and Honduras, while we also anticipate unrest in North Africa as regional food insecurity rises, compounded by poor harvests. In Ethiopia, meanwhile, the risk of protests in the near term is low, following the postponement of a landmark election.
Concerns over the potential abuse of governmental powers are growing in both Hungary and Tanzania, driving human rights concerns, while in Ukraine, the government appears set to receive a major loan following the implementation of IMF-mandated reforms.
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