Join your host Alex Parsons, our Director of Intelligence, who is joined by Valeria Scuto, our Middle East Analyst, and Anastasia Chisholm, our Middle East Associate Analyst, to discuss the mounting political divisions threatening to disrupt Libya's presidential elections, due to take place on Friday, 24 December.
A military build-up in the capital, Tripoli, overnight on 15 December, has contributed to growing concerns that the country is not prepared to host its first round of polls, despite sustained pressure from some domestic players and the international community. Libya's security environment, which remains characterised by rival militia groups and foreign actors, will play a central role in determining whether elections can take place.
Elections, or their postponement, are likely to exacerbate existing factionalism and institutional divisiveness. This is set to drive an uptick in the likelihood of armed hostilities, presenting risks to physical assets, particularly energy infrastructure, and foreign personnel.