Refined Insight: Sibylline's Monthly Digest

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The Global Overview

APRIL 2024

A note from our Head of Global Intelligence, Gareth Westwood

In what has been a tumultuous first quarter of 2024, Sibylline’s Global Intelligence Team (GIT) continues to innovate and deliver critical risk intelligence and geopolitical insight.

Our Middle East and Africa desk has enjoyed little respite this month due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war (among other regional issues). Despite mounting international pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza, progress remains stalled. Overspill risks also continue to escalate. National and international protest activity has increased and there is growing escalation in the Red Sea. In Sub-Saharan Africa, Niger’s revocation of its military accord with the US threatens the future of the latter’s airbase at Agadez, the centre of US counterinsurgency, reconnaissance and rapid strike capabilities across the Sahel.

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November’s US election continues to occupy the reporting bandwidth of our Americas desk. Nonetheless, the team has managed to keep a keen eye on developments in Canada, where heightened levels of immigration continue to strain public resources. Further south, gang control of the Haitian capital Port-au-Prince continues to pose severe risks for the local population.

Our Europe and Eurasia desk remains the leading source of Sibylline’s Ukraine coverage. In addition to the ongoing hostilities, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s electoral victory was marred by a deadly terrorist attack in Moscow. Sticking with this theme, our Europe team analysed the effects of far-right extremism in Germany as part of our latest Extremism Quarterly. The team also critically assessed potential security concerns ahead of the 2024 Paris Olympic Games.

Our Asia-Pacific desk faces a busy second quarter. The Indian government announced a date for the country’s general election, while the Sharif administration in Pakistan remains plagued by political and economic difficulties. Furthermore, terrorist attacks continue to grip the north and west of the country. In the East Asia and Pacific region, the team reported on China’s ‘Two Sessions’, highlighting the country’s priorities for the coming year. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s president resigned after serving just over a year in office amid an ongoing anti-corruption investigation.

As ever, our team is primed to answer your questions. I do hope you enjoy reading this month’s global insight briefing; please do not hesitate to get in touch with any questions or comments.

Our Latest Insights

Our Global Analysis reporting is part of our World Risk Register subscription, for access to all our reporting please contact us via the link below.

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Thought Leadership

APRIL 2024

  • Intelligence and the Private Sector: Demystifying the Landscape
  • How Sibylline’s embedded services stand out in the security and intelligence sector
  • Embracing Imperfection: Israel-Hamas and the reality of intelligence estimation
  • Embedded Services in the Security Industry – what you should consider when building your security program.
  • Building the Intelligence Function: Seven Potholes on the Road to Success

Announcements & Updates

APRIL 2024

Sibylline's Interactive Risk Globe

APRIL 2024

This year’s annual forecast is built on Sibylline’s Strategic Risk Register – an index of 100 key risks that our analysts monitor around the clock, in order to assess potential impacts on organisations, individuals and business operations.

This interactive risk globe allows you to filter by region or primary ASTRA risk outcome, as well as seeing relative ASTRA risk for each country.

By selecting a region, you will be able to visualise key risks and the primary affected country. Click on the description, and the remaining affected countries will be highlighted, allowing you to effectively map risk.

You can also navigate by primary ASTRA risk outcome, whether Criminality, Security, Political or Governance.

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