Refined Insight: Sibylline's Monthly Digest

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The Global Overview

JUNE 2024

A note from our Head of Global Intelligence, Gareth Westwood

As our Mid-Year Forecast events approach, our desks have had a chance to take a step back and reflect on the first half of 2024. The risk landscape continues to evolve, posing fresh challenges for individuals, assets and businesses. In an increasingly impactful year, May proved as busy as ever, and our regional teams have continued to provide actionable intelligence for a raft of global customers. 

Our Middle East and Africa desk has continued to produce regular reporting on the Israel-Hamas war, focusing on the expansion of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) ground operations into Rafah. The unexpected death of the late Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, has left a substantial leadership vacuum; the country is now preparing for an election that will decide its next president. In addition, the African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority, securing 159 seats in the National Assembly in South Africa’s 29 May general election. 

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Our Americas analysts continue to focus on Sino-US relations, as well as Labour laws in Canada. Tensions between Canada and India also remain elevated in the wake of the recent murder of a Sikh separatist leader. Elsewhere, the desk is keeping abreast of extreme weather in Brazil and security risks in Haiti. 

Our Europe-Eurasia desk maintained its coverage of the Ukraine war, especially Russia’s operational drive into Kharkiv oblast. They also assess that Russian grey zone operations will persist across Europe. Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to pose grave challenges for the region, while the attempted assassination of Slovakia’s prime minister proved a major flashpoint in Europe. 

In the Asia-Pacific, the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president is highly likely to have provoked Chinese military drills, which came amid a difficult month for businesses operating in China. The desk has also continued to track key votes, including the election of the first new Singaporean prime minister in nearly 20 years. India’s election has also entered its final stages; the coming weeks will determine whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi will continue in office for a third term. 

As ever, we are ready to help your organisation navigate an increasingly complex world; to that end, please feel free to reach out with any questions you have regarding the above, or any other topic. Thank you, and we hope you enjoy this month’s edition. 

Our Latest Insights

Below is a sample of our Global Analysis reporting which is part of our World Risk Register subscription service. For access to all our reporting, please contact us.

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Thought Leadership

JUNE 2024

  • The Role of Intelligence in Legal Practice
  • What’s in a Name? Defining What we do for the Wider Audience
  • Intelligence and the Private Sector: Demystifying the Landscape
  • How Sibylline’s embedded services stand out in the security and intelligence sector
  • Embracing Imperfection: Israel-Hamas and the reality of intelligence estimation
  • Embedded Services in the Security Industry – what you should consider when building your security program.
  • Building the Intelligence Function: Seven Potholes on the Road to Success

Announcements & Updates

JUNE 2024

Sibylline's Interactive Risk Globe

JUNE 2024

This year’s annual forecast is built on Sibylline’s Strategic Risk Register – an index of 100 key risks that our analysts monitor around the clock, in order to assess potential impacts on organisations, individuals and business operations.

This interactive risk globe allows you to filter by region or primary ASTRA risk outcome, as well as seeing relative ASTRA risk for each country.

By selecting a region, you will be able to visualise key risks and the primary affected country. Click on the description, and the remaining affected countries will be highlighted, allowing you to effectively map risk.

You can also navigate by primary ASTRA risk outcome, whether Criminality, Security, Political or Governance.

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