Refined Insight

Sibylline's monthly digest of geopolitical analysis and thought leadership.

The Global Overview


A note from Associate Director and Head of Global Intelligence, Gareth Westwood

The first month of 2024 saw no letup in the Global Intelligence Team (GIT)’s workload as we entered a year of elections, escalating conflict and an ever-expanding risk landscape. 

As the Israel-Hamas war continues, strikes against shipping in the Red Sea saw the US, UK and their allies launch a series of retaliatory strikes against Houthi positions in Yemen. In an increasing tit-for-tat exchange of targeted strikes between the US and Iranian-backed proxy groups, further escalation remains a possibility. Our Middle East and Africa desk has, as ever, kept a keen eye on Sub-Saharan Africa, where Somaliland President Abdi sought official recognition of the territory by Ethiopia in exchange for Addis Ababa’s access to Red Sea port facilities. 

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Sibylline continues to monitor the Russia-Ukraine conflict closely; the Europe-Eurasia desk reported on a series of unprecedented and large-scale strikes perpetrated by Russia against Ukrainian targets. Meanwhile, in France, a cabinet reshuffle aims to reduce political tensions. As ever, our Europe regional team will continue to monitor and report on developments. 

While over 60% of the world’s population is set to vote in elections in 2024, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)’s victory in the Taiwanese election garnered significant interest among the global risk community. Our Asia-Pacific desk released several reports and hosted two webinars detailing potential outcomes and scenarios. Another impactful vote in Pakistan on 8 February is set to keep our South Asia regional team busy. 

Our Americas desk published Sibylline’s inaugural US Elections Monthly report, kicking off what will be an extensive suite of coverage throughout 2024. The North America regional team also explored the rising scrutiny facing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau amid the ongoing housing crisis. Elsewhere, our Latin America regional team highlighted the policy risks and potential for domestic unrest in Argentina and Guatemala, while also analysing the trends of gang violence in Ecuador. 

Our Cyber desk continued to observe evolving threat actors’ tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs), while noting variations in the frequency of attacks over the last month compared to December 2023. The desk also sought to compare the specific cyber risk trends it observed over the last two months. 

As ever, Sibylline’s GIT remains poised to help organisations and businesses mitigate risk in a complex world through a pro-active approach. I encourage you to get in touch with any questions you have. 

Our Latest Insights

Our Global Analysis reporting is part of our World Risk Register subscription, for access to all our reporting please contact us via the link below.

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Thought Leadership


  • What Sets Sibylline Embedded Services Apart?
  • Embracing Imperfection: Israel-Hamas and the reality of intelligence estimation
  • Embedded Services in the Security Industry – what you should consider when building your security program.
  • Building the Intelligence Function: Seven Potholes on the Road to Success

Announcements & Updates


Introducing Sibylline's Interactive Risk Globe


This year’s annual forecast is built on Sibylline’s Strategic Risk Register – an index of 100 key risks that our analysts monitor around the clock, in order to assess potential impacts on organisations, individuals and business operations.

This interactive risk globe allows you to filter by region or primary ASTRA risk outcome, as well as seeing relative ASTRA risk for each country.

By selecting a region, you will be able to visualise key risks and the primary affected country. Click on the description, and the remaining affected countries will be highlighted, allowing you to effectively map risk.

You can also navigate by primary ASTRA risk outcome, whether Criminality, Security, Political or Governance.

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