The Global Overview
JUNE 2024
Middle East, North Africa and Turkey
On 6 May, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began expanding ground operations into Rafah (southern Gaza) after negotiations with Hamas stalled. Throughout the month, the IDF conducted small-scale ground incursions, slowly advancing towards Rafah city centre while gradually building up the number of brigades operating in the area. The IDF also secured full control of the Rafah border crossing on 7 May, along with parts of the Philadelphi corridor, escalating security and diplomatic tensions with Egypt. This culminated in a misfire that killed an Egyptian security guard on 27 May. Furthermore, on 24 May, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued provisional measures calling for Israel to halt Rafah operations, driving further international condemnation against Israel. In Iran, President Ebrahim Raisi and his foreign minister died in a helicopter crash on 19 May, leaving substantial leadership vacuum within Iran’s conservative movement, with elections scheduled for 28 June.
Sub-Saharan Africa
In Mali, the National Dialogue recommended that the military junta extend the transition to civilian rule by three years. This would allow Mali’s junta to rule until 2027. Similarly, on 25 May Burkina Faso’s military leader, Ibrahim Traore, signed a new charter extending the country’s transition period by 60 months, granting him the positions of president and ‘supreme leader of the armed forces’ and allowing him to contest elections as and when they are organised. On 20 May, South Africa's Constitutional Court ruled that the former president and leader of the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, Jacob Zuma, is ineligible to run for the 29 May general election due to his 15-month prison sentence for contempt of court. Despite the ruling, the MK party has been permitted to contest the election; representatives have already said that Zuma will remain head of the party regardless of the ruling, sustaining its capacity to undercut the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in key regions.
Eurasia
On 28 May, the Georgian parliament voted to override the veto of President Salome Zurabishvili on foreign agent legislation, paving the way for its implementation. We previously assessed that this law, combined with the ruling Georgian Dream party’s increasingly anti-Western stance, will highly likely sustain high Domestic Unrest risks in Georgia. Large-scale demonstrations in opposition to the law are likely to continue in the coming days and weeks. Protest activity has also remained heightened in neighbouring Armenia this month over territorial concessions to Azerbaijan. On 24 May, Baku took control of the four border villages Yerevan had agreed to cede in April. While such transfers will likely modestly aid in reducing Regional Tensions and Border Disputes between both countries in the near term, territorial concessions will drive Government Stability risks in Armenia. Elsewhere in Eurasia, Russia launched a new offensive on 10 May in Ukraine’s Kharkiv oblast, which we assessed is likely an attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces and take advantage of months-long delays in Western military aid.
Europe
In May, Sibylline assessed that Russia has likely intensified grey zone and destabilisation operations in Europe, particularly across the Baltic region, as part of a wider deterrence campaign to pressure the West and erode support for Ukraine. On 15 May, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot while attending a government meeting in the town of Handlová (Trenčín region). Fico’s condition has now stabilised. Additionally, in a Special Report on the European Parliament elections, we assessed that centrist parties will retain a slightly diminished majority; right-wing and hard-right parties are likely to increase their seat share. Finally, an Events Risk Assessment assessed the key risks during the UEFA European Championships 2024 in Germany.
East Asia and Pacific
On 20 May, Lai Ching-te was inaugurated as the new president of Taiwan. However, just days after China announced two days of military drills around the island, illustrating their disapproval of the new president who they consider a ‘separatist’. Lai also must deal with a split legislature, which his party does not control, and with the opposition pushing through controversial legislation that has prompted significant protests. Additionally, the prospect of a trade war between China and Western economies grew, as tit-for-tat trade measures were announced in May, highlighting the difficult operating environment for firms in China. Elsewhere, Singapore swore in a new prime minister for the first time in nearly 20 years, although a significant change in policy is highly unlikely.
South Asia
South Asia continued to experience elevated temperatures (consistently surpassing 40 C) that increased health risks and heightened disruption due to suspended operations of services and schools, as well as power shortages due to increased energy demand. The heat is also believed to have had an impact on the turnout for the ongoing Indian election, which enters its final stages following a charged campaign period. The results due in early June will determine whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi will continue in office for a third term, which is the most likely scenario. Elsewhere, significant protests were monitored across Pakistan as the high cost of living has put increasing pressure on different parts of society.
North America
In the US, another attempt to pass a border security bill failed in Congress over continued partisan-fuelled Policy Stagnation. On 14 May, President Joe Biden announced new tariffs on USD 18 billion in goods made in China, escalating tensions with the Chinese government and increasing the risk of tit-for-tat trade measures. Notably, Biden also withheld shipments of high payload weapons to Israel to warn against launching a major operation into Rafah (Palestinian territories). In Canada, Labour Flexibility risks decreased after the House of Commons voted to ban replacement workers during a strike in federal workplaces. However, labour activity is expected to increase over the coming months, particularly as workers from the Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City voted for a strike on 1 May. Additionally, Regional Tensions with India remained high due to the arrest of three Indian men over the murder of a Sikh separatist leader in June 2023 and the ongoing investigation over the Indian government’s alleged involvement. Across North America, frequent periods of extreme weather (including wildfires and tornadoes) raised Energy Security and disruption risks.
Latin America
Heavy rains caused severe flooding in the Rio Grande do Sul state of Brazil, elevating bystander, operational and supply chain risks. Furthermore, the flooding has also increased risks for public health and the agricultural sector, particularly soybean production. Meanwhile, the beginning of the deployment of the Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission to Haiti has elevated risks of reprisal attacks and sustained organised crime risks in the capital Port-au-Prince. The stagnation of Argentine President Javier Milei’s controversial Omnibus Bill has sustained policy and government stability risks. However, the bill has progressed to the Senate floor after garnering sufficient support among the various Senate committees engaged in deliberation.
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