The Global Overview
MAY 2024
Middle East, North Africa and Turkey
Mutual hostilities between Iran and Israel escalated to unprecedented levels when Iran conducted its first direct strike against Israel on 13 April in a wave of drone and missile strikes. However, the attack was designed to be low-impact and to avoid a major Israeli retaliation. In turn, Israel conducted a limited airstrike inside Iran on 19 April against a military airbase. Iran has not attributed the attack to Israel meaning that further retaliatory direct strikes are currently unlikely. In Gaza, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) continued clearing operations in Gaza’s northern and central sectors, while augmenting its posture along the Netzarim Corridor (central Gaza). However, the likelihood of a Rafah operation continues to mount, with the planned deployment of further IDF brigades to the strip increasing the security risks facing aid and UN workers. Meanwhile, the Yemen-based Houthis continued to attack vessels in the Red Sea. They also conducted their first direct strike in the Indian Ocean, elevating the geographical scope of risks to shipping.
Sub-Saharan Africa
In Ethiopia, Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) militias and Amharan regional forces clashed on 13 April in Raya Alamata district, a territory disputed by both Amhara and Tigray regions. Elsewhere, 15 April marked the one-year anniversary of the outbreak of the conflict in Sudan. Presently, intense fighting between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) is mainly contained in southern Sudan and the environs of the capital Khartoum, though fighting has spread eastwards in recent months following the RSF’s capture of al-Jazirah state. In Togo, the opposition called for protests in the capital Lomé following the recently passed constitutional reforms; they allege the reforms will be used to extend the tenure of President Faure Gnassingbe.
Eurasia
On 17 April, Russia confirmed the withdrawal of its peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh. The deal comes amid heightened Regional Tensions between Moscow and Yerevan and will likely weaken Armenia's position in the region, particularly if a resumption of Armed Conflict were to begin with Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, on 19 April, Armenia and Azerbaijan officially agreed on the delimitation of a portion of their shared border. Yerevan agreed to cede four villages from its north-eastern Tavush province. The territorial transfer has sparked a severe backlash from Tavush residents and Armenian nationalists, driving the risk of Domestic Unrest, though it has likely moderately reduced conflict risks. Elsewhere, Russia has continued to carry out anti-terror operations targeting individuals suspected of being involved in the Crocus Hall attack on 22 March. The Crocus Hall attack underscores moderately increased International Terrorist Risks across Eurasia, where Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-K) remains the most active Islamist terror organisation. Separately, we assessed that US sanctions have moderately undermined Moscow's access to global financial systems.
Europe
The extremist Islamic State (IS) group called for Attacks against European football stadiums hosting the quarter-finals of the Champions League tournament in early April. We assessed that attacks by IS and its affiliates and IS-inspired sole-perpetrator attacks were unlikely due to the limited capabilities of these groups and the heightened security posture in cities hosting matches. Additionally, in a Special Report on Islamist extremist threats in Europe-Eurasia, we assessed that the large-scale terrorist attack carried out by Islamist State-Khorasan Province (IS-K) in Moscow (Russia) has elevated the risk of smaller and rudimentary copycat attacks across Europe. Finally, we issued an Alert in which we assessed that there was realistic possibility of violent left-wing Domestic Unrest in France, Germany and Switzerland on International Worker’s Day on 1 May. We also assessed that an uptick in pro-Palestine demonstrations and industrial action in several European jurisdictions was likely.
East Asia and Pacific
In early April, Taiwan was struck by its strongest earthquake since 1999. There were at least 18 fatalities. Damage was also reported near the epicentre in Hualien on the island’s east coast. Overall, the damage and scale of disruption remained mostly limited despite the earthquake’s magnitude, though aftershocks were recorded weeks after the initial quake. In South Korea, National Assembly elections resulted in a landslide victory for the opposition Democratic Party, leaving President Yoon Suk-yeol as a possible ‘lame duck’ for the rest of his term; the risk of a legislative gridlock is therefore sustained. Finally, in Australia, high-profile stabbings in Sydney (New South Wales state) underscored the threat posed by sole perpetrators despite the intelligence agencies efforts’ to contain more co-ordinated extremist activity.
South Asia
India’s seven-phase general election began in April. While the first two phases have been largely peaceful, there were some incidents of violence in West Bengal and Manipur states. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are highly likely to secure a third term in power, which would likely sustain ethno-religious tensions and crackdowns on the media. Meanwhile, in the Maldives, President Mohamed Muizzu’s People’s National Congress (PNC) won legislative elections in a landslide, significantly strengthening Muizzu’s position and ostensibly endorsing his decision to foster closer ties with China. Finally, both Sri Lanka and Pakistan continue to position themselves to secure further support from the IMF as their economies remain fragile.
North America
In the US, Congress passed a USD 95 billion package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, ending months of policy stagnation over foreign aid. The aid is set to decrease US-Ukraine tensions and Regional Security risks. However, Republican backlash regarding the aid has heightened Government Stability risks due to increasing calls for House Speaker Mike Johnson to resign. On 18 April, the police arrested over 100 pro-Palestine demonstrators at Columbia University in New York City (New York). In the ensuing days, large-scale pro-Palestine protests broke out at major universities across the US, elevating Domestic Unrest and bystander risks. In Canada, the federal carbon tax increased on 1 April, sparking nationwide protests. Sustained criticism from provinces and the Conservative Party over the tax has subsequently raised Policy Risks for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Latin America
The US government’s decision to revoke the general license for purchases of oil and gas from Venezuela has increased compliance risks in the short-to-medium term. Furthermore, tensions remain elevated due to the Venezuela-Guyana dispute, though the risk of war remains low. Meanwhile, the installation of the transition council in Haiti has underscored the continued risk of gang-related violence targeting critical infrastructure and government buildings in the capital in Port-au-Prince. In Peru, the ongoing investigations into President Dina Boluarte for illicit enrichment and bribery have increased risks related to graft and protests, as well as accompanying unrest.
Cyber
Sibylline observed several trends throughout April. The exploitation of software vulnerabilities by both state-sponsored and cybercriminal groups remained consistent, making up a significant proportion of reported attacks. Malware operations were also carried out by both financially motivated and state-sponsored actors, a trend which is also likely to remain consistent in May. Ransomware attacks also continued at a steady pace, notably integrating multi-stage financial operations. April also highlighted significant growth in the development and evolution of actors’ TTPs, as groups incorporated AI tools into their attacks, and considerably refined their obfuscation and persistence methods. We assess this trend will likely continue in the short term. State-sponsored operations represented a large portion of cyber attacks throughout April, with Russian and Chinese groups conducting espionage operations ahead of election cycles.
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