REPORT

NIGER: INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ECOWAS INTERVENTION WILL COMPOUND RISK OF DOMESTIC CLASHES

11 AUGUST 2023

Ukrain Monthly

EVENT

Late on 10 August, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) announced the activation of a standby force for a possible deployment to Niger to re-instate deposed President Mohamed Bazoum.

SIGNIFICANCE

  • Niger’s military government has repeatedly rejected ECOWAS’ demands to re-instate Bazoum, who is currently detained at the Presidential Palace in the capital Niamey; ECOWAS’ standby force likely consists of around 25,000 troops primarily drawn from Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria and Senegal.
  • General Abdourahamane (Omar) Tchiani’s control over Niger’s military remains highly tenuous; while the National Army declared its support for the coup to ‘avoid bloodshed’, the National Guard reportedly remains loyal to Bazoum.
  • Public support for the military government remains highly divided; while the junta enjoys moderate support in Niamey, it has struggled to consolidate a broader support base, particularly among rural communities and Niger’s Tuareg population.

FORECAST

Negotiations between ECOWAS and Niger’s junta are unlikely to resolve tensions, increasing the likelihood of the former’s intervention.............

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NIGER: INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ECOWAS INTERVENTION WILL COMPOUND RISK OF DOMESTIC CLASHES

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