Upticks in fighting and rhetoric around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) have raised concerns over a nuclear incident, with Moscow and Kyiv accusing one another of endangering nuclear safety, preparing 'provocations' and risking a major escalation. Ultimately, a major nuclear disaster remains highly unlikely, even in the event of an accidental or deliberate strike against the reactor. Containment measures and back-up cooling systems will likely mitigate the release of radiation during a meltdown, with the design of the plant providing a more robust 'defence in depth' system of defences than those at Chernobyl and even Fukushima.

In this Sibylline special report, we set out various scenarios for how a nuclear incident could unfold at the ZNPP, the implications and health impacts of radiation leaks. We also provide comparisons with the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear incidents, set out various mitigation measures and analyse the second-order impacts of a nuclear escalation on the wider region.