With the coming inauguration of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)’s Lai Ching-te as Taiwan’s new president on 20 May amid ongoing tensions between the US and China, the question of how China will approach the Taiwan issue during Lai's term in office has been much discussed. Given these questions, we have assessed what will shape China’s decision making in the coming 12 months and beyond, identifying the key drivers that will determine whether China considers launching a military campaign to take control of the self-ruled island. Our Strategic Risk Forecast on the topic analyses these drivers, identifies the scenarios that will possibly play out and pinpoints key triggers, warnings and indicators to monitor that could impact the trajectory of the situation.

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