BRIEFING - US Elections Monthly: The Israel-Hamas War and US Foreign Policy in the Middle East

Wednesday 12 June @ 1600hrs BST (London) / 1100hrs EDT (New York)

The 2024 US presidential election will take place during a pivotal moment for US foreign policy in the Middle East. The next administration will face substantial political and diplomatic pressure to manage hostilities in the Israel-Hamas war. Additionally, escalating tensions with Iran will continue to be a defining factor dictating the US force posture in the region. If Biden is elected to a second term, his policy will maintain support for Israeli self-defence while promoting a lasting ceasefire. He will also seek to counter Iran with the overarching goal of de-escalating US involvement in the region. If Trump is elected president, his foreign policy vis à vis the Middle East will likely seek to assertively curtail Iranian influence and maintain strong military and political support for Israel. Under the next administration, there will be an increasing risk of regional instability and direct military conflict involving the US and Iran, exacerbating operational risks and regional tensions.

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