SPECIAL REPORT: Turkey-Syria - Earthquakes’ Aftermath Will Increase Operational, Market Entry Risks

Beyond the catastrophic humanitarian impacts of the Turkey and Syria earthquakes, both countries will face substantial socio-economic and political ramifications in the coming months, threatening long-term domestic and regional stability. The earthquakes will aggravate underlying socio-economic grievances in Turkey, elevating the risk of widespread protest activity in major cities, and posing a major challenge in the stability of current President Erdogan's electoral campaign ahead of May. Heightened anti-government sentiment will likely result in tighter state surveillance and the scrutiny of the construction sector in Turkey, as Erdogan seeks to deflect responsibility and blame for the impact of the earthquake, posing compliance risks for current and prospective businesses.

In tandem, earthquake-related population displacement in Syria and Turkey will sustain security and reputational risks for businesses due to the exposure of supply chain routes to organised crime groups. Terrorist and militant groups will seek to exploit the increase in cross-border movement and subsequent economic disaster to bolster recruitment opportunities and undermine counter-terrorism operations in the coming months.