Taiwan’s Election Outlook


On 13 January 2024, Taiwan will hold elections to determine the make-up of the Legislative Yuan and President Tsai Ing-wen’s replacement. Current Vice President Lai Ching-te is the favourite and represents continuity and sustained cross-strait tensions. China will almost certainly prefer a different victor. We will be assessing the main candidates and their parties, along with the various scenarios that could emerge from the elections and how they will shape Taiwan, cross-strait relations and ties with the US going forward.

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