Panama’s presidential election will expose long-term unrest risks amid austerity, reform agendas.

In the run-up to Panama’s presidential election on 5 May, José Raul Mulino leads in the polls and the candidates’ support for the suspension of Cobre Panamá’s mining contract underscores continued hostility to foreign investment for projects deemed to be environmentally damaging. The new government is highly likely to introduce austerity measures, elevating labour disruption and domestic unrest risks in the medium-to-long term. Scrutiny over political and private-sector corruption will sustain regulatory framework and reputational risks as policymakers pursue transparency and anti-corruption agendas. If Mulino is elected, we assess that he would likely pursue the drafting of a new constitution, elevating long-term domestic unrest risks.

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