Analysis

ALERT: Europe – Violence and Clashes Possible During Anti-Government May Day Unrest

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EVENT On 1 May activists and anti-government protesters are expected to hold a ‘Kill The Bill’ National Day of Action across the United Kingdom, in protest at the controversial Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill. The anticipated demonstrations will fall on May Day, a traditional day for left-wing and anti-government protests, with numerous other demonstrations […]

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ALERT: Russia – Harsh Crackdowns Likely as Opposition Brings Forward Nationwide Protests

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EVENT On 18 April supporters of imprisoned opposition activist Alexei Navalny called for new nationwide protests to take place on 21 April, bringing forward their plans over concerns over Navalny’s rapidly deteriorating health. SIGNIFICANCE The announcement comes after nationwide protests were held across Russian in January following the return and subsequent arrest of Alexei Navalny

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SUB: Gender Inequality and Covid-19

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Key Takeaways  The Covid-19 pandemic is disproportionally impacting working women, with many taking on additional childcare, household and remote learning responsibilities. The financial toll from the absence of women contributing to the workforce could stunt GDP growth by over USD 1 trillion by 2030. However, if companies address gender imbalances worsened by the pandemic, global

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SUB: China – New Development Strategy Sets Lofty Economic Ambitions in the Face of Persistent Geopolitical Challenges

/ Analysis, Situation Update Briefs /

Key Takeaways  China’s lawmakers and top political advisors are set to formally adopt the new socio-economic development blueprint that has already been drafted and endorsed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at the annual plenary meetings in Beijing. The 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) will guide development strategy and policy for the next five years, with

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SUB: COVID-19 Vaccines: Challenges and Opportunities

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Key Takeaways  Optimism around Covid-19 vaccine development is giving way to logistical challenges in actioning complex immunisation programmes. Facing delays and the risk of resurgent case rates on the back of new variants, governments will continue to implement restrictions to mitigate transmission of SARSCoV-2, the virus that causes the disease, Covid-19. The strength of economic

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SUB: Japan & US – Renewed Bilateral Security Commitment Could Trigger Domestic Unrest and Sustain Tensions with Beijing

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Key Takeaways  The agreement to extend the bilateral cost-sharing arrangement on US forces stationed in Japan has raised concerns over potential anti-US protests and unrest in Okinawa, given the significant opposition to US military presence among the local population. Most notably, the US military’s apparent disregard of the Covid-19 restrictions and perceived disruptive training activities

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ALERT: Myanmar – Military power seizure raises unrest risk and rocks investment climate

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EVENT On 1 February, the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military) detained State Counsellor and the country’s de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi along with several other senior members of the ruling National League of Democracy (NLD). A year-long state of emergency has been declared, with the military, headed by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, having seized

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SUB: Iran-South Korea – Vessel seizure drives tensions in final weeks of trump administration

/ Analysis, Situation Update Briefs

Overview On 4 January, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) seized a South Korean-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz amidst an ongoing dispute over Iranian funds held in South Korean banks. The assets, totaling roughly USD 7 billion, were frozen in September 2019 when the US tightened sanctions on Iranian petrochemical exports, which included

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ALERT: Mozambique – Mass killing seeks to deter government militia recruitment

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EVENT On 9 November, Mozambican security officials confirmed that Islamist insurgent group Ahl al-Sunnah wa alJamaa (ASWJ) executed at least 50 people in the village of Muatide during the past week. SIGNIFICANCE The bodies were found following an ASWJ raid on the Muidumbe region, which began on 31 October, during which ASWJ launched attacks on

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SUB: Ethiopia – Conflict in the Tigray region: current situation and scenarios

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Latest Developments since 6 November Fighting between the military and forces loyal to the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has escalated in the Tigray Region in the past few days. The federal government claims that in fighting over 7-8 November the army had taken control of a large swathe of western Tigray, primarily in the

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