Analysis

SUB: Rising Water Insecurity Will Compound Regional Security Challenges

Key Takeaways On 26 July, the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture imposed a six-month ban on the export of certain agricultural products in a bid to relieve the growing pressure on the sector amid the worst drought seen in parts of Central Asia in over a decade. The development is the latest in a series of …

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ALERT: France – Mandatory Vaccination Policy Sparks Anti-Vaccine Protests Nationwide

EVENT In a nationwide televised address on 12 July, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a new package of measures intended to combat an emergent fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in France. The new measures include mandatory vaccination for all health sector workers, retirement home staff and some social care workers, and will make the …

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ALERT: Haiti – President Jovenel Moïse Killed in Apparent Assassination

EVENT On 7 July, President Jovenel Moïse was reportedly assassinated by a group of unidentified individuals in a targeted operation at his private residence around 0100 local time. The recently appointed Prime Minister Claude Joseph confirmed the assassination of the president and will now temporarily lead the Council of Ministers. Reports indicate that some of …

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ASTRA: Policy Risk is Falling Sharply in North America and The Middle East, While Rising for the Rest of the World

https://www.sibylline.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/LinkedIn-Posts-.mp4 This data has been produced by ASTRA. Sibylline’s ASTRA (Aggregated Strategic Threat and Risk Assessment) software quantifies 32 risk factors for 249 countries, select cities, and sub-national regions with over six years of historical scores and trends available. The sharp improvement in policy risk in North America has accompanied the arrival of the Biden …

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SUB: Israel – New Government Ends Economic Instability, but Tensions Over Key Policy Areas Remain

Overview On 13 June, the Knesset voted in a new coalition government, officially ending former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s 12 consecutive years in power. Leader of the ultra-right-wing Yamina party, Naftali Bennett, and leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party, Yair Lapid, successfully formed a government consisting of Arab, left-wing and nationalist parties, representing one …

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SUB: US Power Grid Protection and Infrastructure Developments

Key Takeaways In April, the Biden administration launched a 100-day plan to upgrade power grid cyber security through a series of voluntary initiatives and the establishment of an incentive-based framework to catalyse public-private partnerships, which aim to mitigate emerging threats and security vulnerabilities. Notably however, several high-profile cyber-attacks have curtailed the Biden administration’s push to …

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ALERT: Belarus – Diversion of Civilian Flight Reflects Mounting Risk of Physical Threats to Foreign Firms

EVENT On 23 May Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka ordered a MiG-29 to escort a Ryanair passenger flight to Minsk in order to arrest a wanted domestic critic who was onboard. The Ryanair flight between Athens and Vilnius, which was carrying 172 passengers, was ordered to divert to Minsk over an alleged bomb threat, but no …

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ALERT: Europe – Violence and Clashes Possible During Anti-Government May Day Unrest

EVENT On 1 May activists and anti-government protesters are expected to hold a ‘Kill The Bill’ National Day of Action across the United Kingdom, in protest at the controversial Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill. The anticipated demonstrations will fall on May Day, a traditional day for left-wing and anti-government protests, with numerous other demonstrations …

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ALERT: Russia – Harsh Crackdowns Likely as Opposition Brings Forward Nationwide Protests

EVENT On 18 April supporters of imprisoned opposition activist Alexei Navalny called for new nationwide protests to take place on 21 April, bringing forward their plans over concerns over Navalny’s rapidly deteriorating health. SIGNIFICANCE The announcement comes after nationwide protests were held across Russian in January following the return and subsequent arrest of Alexei Navalny …

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SUB: Gender Inequality and Covid-19

Key Takeaways  The Covid-19 pandemic is disproportionally impacting working women, with many taking on additional childcare, household and remote learning responsibilities. The financial toll from the absence of women contributing to the workforce could stunt GDP growth by over USD 1 trillion by 2030. However, if companies address gender imbalances worsened by the pandemic, global …

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