Analysis

SUB: Worrying Left-Wing Extremist Trends Underline Long-Lasting Threat

March 26, 2021 / Analysis, Situation Update Briefs / , ,

Key Takeaways  Left-wing extremist (LWE) groups in Germany are increasingly interconnected, willing to use violence and have used the Covid-19 pandemic to consolidate pre-pandemic narratives. As a result, both overall support for LWE groups as well as the threat of violence posed by them are likely to increase in the coming year. Single issue mainstream …

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SUB: Gender Inequality and Covid-19

March 12, 2021 / Analysis, Situation Update Briefs / , ,

Key Takeaways  The Covid-19 pandemic is disproportionally impacting working women, with many taking on additional childcare, household and remote learning responsibilities. The financial toll from the absence of women contributing to the workforce could stunt GDP growth by over USD 1 trillion by 2030. However, if companies address gender imbalances worsened by the pandemic, global …

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SUB: China – New Development Strategy Sets Lofty Economic Ambitions in the Face of Persistent Geopolitical Challenges

March 5, 2021 / Analysis, Situation Update Briefs /

Key Takeaways  China’s lawmakers and top political advisors are set to formally adopt the new socio-economic development blueprint that has already been drafted and endorsed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at the annual plenary meetings in Beijing. The 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) will guide development strategy and policy for the next five years, with …

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SUB: COVID-19 Vaccines: Challenges and Opportunities

March 3, 2021 / Analysis, COVID, Situation Update Briefs / ,

Key Takeaways  Optimism around Covid-19 vaccine development is giving way to logistical challenges in actioning complex immunisation programmes. Facing delays and the risk of resurgent case rates on the back of new variants, governments will continue to implement restrictions to mitigate transmission of SARSCoV-2, the virus that causes the disease, Covid-19. The strength of economic …

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SUB: Japan & US – Renewed Bilateral Security Commitment Could Trigger Domestic Unrest and Sustain Tensions with Beijing

February 18, 2021 / Analysis, Situation Update Briefs / ,

Key Takeaways  The agreement to extend the bilateral cost-sharing arrangement on US forces stationed in Japan has raised concerns over potential anti-US protests and unrest in Okinawa, given the significant opposition to US military presence among the local population. Most notably, the US military’s apparent disregard of the Covid-19 restrictions and perceived disruptive training activities …

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ALERT: Myanmar – Military power seizure raises unrest risk and rocks investment climate

February 8, 2021 / Alert, Analysis

EVENT On 1 February, the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military) detained State Counsellor and the country’s de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi along with several other senior members of the ruling National League of Democracy (NLD). A year-long state of emergency has been declared, with the military, headed by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, having seized …

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SUB: Iran-South Korea – Vessel seizure drives tensions in final weeks of trump administration

February 8, 2021 / Analysis, Situation Update Briefs

Overview On 4 January, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) seized a South Korean-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz amidst an ongoing dispute over Iranian funds held in South Korean banks. The assets, totaling roughly USD 7 billion, were frozen in September 2019 when the US tightened sanctions on Iranian petrochemical exports, which included …

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ALERT: Mozambique – Mass killing seeks to deter government militia recruitment

February 8, 2021 / Alert, Analysis

EVENT On 9 November, Mozambican security officials confirmed that Islamist insurgent group Ahl al-Sunnah wa alJamaa (ASWJ) executed at least 50 people in the village of Muatide during the past week. SIGNIFICANCE The bodies were found following an ASWJ raid on the Muidumbe region, which began on 31 October, during which ASWJ launched attacks on …

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SUB: Ethiopia – Conflict in the Tigray region: current situation and scenarios

February 8, 2021 / Analysis, Situation Update Briefs

Latest Developments since 6 November Fighting between the military and forces loyal to the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has escalated in the Tigray Region in the past few days. The federal government claims that in fighting over 7-8 November the army had taken control of a large swathe of western Tigray, primarily in the …

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ALERT: France – Heightened terrorism risk to drive likelihood of attacks in the short term

February 8, 2021 / Alert, Analysis

EVENT French national police are calling for an increase in the security around religious sites in the country ahead of the All Saint’s holiday, which is coming up this weekend. The development highlights an uptick in online threats by extremists against Christians and moderate Muslims and comes against the backdrop of French Interior Minister Gerald …

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