Analysis

ITA. 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference 2021 (COP26)

Executive Summary    COP26 retains a singular importance to environmentalist groups across the planet, with movements such as Extinction Rebellion (XR), Fridays for Future (FFF) and Greenpeace viewing it as a make-or-break opportunity to mitigate the effects of climate change. Given the summit’s importance, mass protests and disruptive activities are planned to take place across …

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SUB. Aggressive Military Posturing Increases Risk to Regional Trade

Key Takeaways An uptick in military activity and political rhetoric has shown Beijing’s increasingly assertive stance on Taiwan this month. President Tsai Ing-wen (Democratic Progressive Party, DPP) of Taiwan is unlikely to seek moves towards formal independence in the remainder of her current term; however, Tsai firmly rejects Beijing’s unification proposal under the “one China, …

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CYBER QUARTERLY REVIEW Q3 2021

High-profile cyber groups re-emerge despite global law enforcement agencies’ continued crackdown Summary of trends: Q3 saw the resurgence of several cyber criminal groups previously thought to have either gone into “retirement” or in hiding due to increased clampdowns by law enforcement agencies. The most notable example is the alleged reactivation of the REvil ransomware cartel’s …

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SUB. Afghanistan: Tougher Tests Lie Ahead for Taliban’s Resolve to Govern

Key Takeaways  The new Afghan interim government comprises male, Pashtun members of the Taliban inner circle; it is not an inclusive administration as was promised by the Taliban. However, the delayed formation of the government and some cabinet appointments underscore the difficulty in securing a consensus across various factions. Factions within the group could drive …

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SUB. Gulf-Afghanistan: Taliban Rule Threatens to Further Upset Regional Dynamics

Key Takeaways    The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan threatens to exacerbate regional divides and upset delicate balances, particularly between Gulf states amongst whom relations remain fragile. Notably, should Qatar adopt a more dominant role as regional power broker, it risks straining recently revived ties with other Gulf states such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia.     The Taliban’s consolidation of power will provide Iran with an opportunity to bolster its geopolitical leverage given Tehran’s relative isolation under severe US sanctions. An emboldened Iran will likely deepen Saudi concerns despite recent …

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SUB: Assessment on the Fallout of the Pegasus Surveillance Scandal

General Overview On 18 July, an investigation conducted by a consortium of international news organisations and human rights groups, including the Washington Post, Le Monde and Amnesty International, secured access to a leaked list of more than 50,000 phone numbers targeted for surveillance with Pegasus, a spyware tool developed by Israeli surveillance firm NSO Group. …

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SUB: Extinction Rebellion Protests Will Bring Disruption To Urban Centres In August

Background The environmentalist activist group Extinction Rebellion (XR) will hold various “Rebellions” this month in Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and the United Kingdom. As part of the August campaign, the group has planned significant action in Oslo (Norway) and Berlin (Germany) to last several days, known as the “Nordic” and “Central” Rebellions. Financial and oil …

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SUB: Mercer Vessel Attack Accelerates Instability In Persian Gulf; Threatens Trajectory Of Iranian Nuclear Talks

Key Takeaways The escalation of Israel and Iran’s “shadow war” threatens to destabilise already fragile political environments in the region, as both nations continue to utilise proxies to bolster influence. It is likely that tensions will intensify cross-border scuffles, particularly in parts of Lebanon and Syria, and flare relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. …

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