Analysis

ASTRA: Policy Risk is Falling Sharply in North America and The Middle East, While Rising for the Rest of the World

https://www.sibylline.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/LinkedIn-Posts-.mp4 This data has been produced by ASTRA. Sibylline’s ASTRA (Aggregated Strategic Threat and Risk Assessment) software quantifies 32 risk factors for 249 countries, select cities, and sub-national regions with over six years of historical scores and trends available. The sharp improvement in policy risk in North America has accompanied the arrival of the Biden …

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SUB: Israel – New Government Ends Economic Instability, but Tensions Over Key Policy Areas Remain

Overview On 13 June, the Knesset voted in a new coalition government, officially ending former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s 12 consecutive years in power. Leader of the ultra-right-wing Yamina party, Naftali Bennett, and leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party, Yair Lapid, successfully formed a government consisting of Arab, left-wing and nationalist parties, representing one …

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SUB: US Power Grid Protection and Infrastructure Developments

Key Takeaways In April, the Biden administration launched a 100-day plan to upgrade power grid cyber security through a series of voluntary initiatives and the establishment of an incentive-based framework to catalyse public-private partnerships, which aim to mitigate emerging threats and security vulnerabilities. Notably however, several high-profile cyber-attacks have curtailed the Biden administration’s push to …

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ALERT: Belarus – Diversion of Civilian Flight Reflects Mounting Risk of Physical Threats to Foreign Firms

EVENT On 23 May Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka ordered a MiG-29 to escort a Ryanair passenger flight to Minsk in order to arrest a wanted domestic critic who was onboard. The Ryanair flight between Athens and Vilnius, which was carrying 172 passengers, was ordered to divert to Minsk over an alleged bomb threat, but no …

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ALERT: Europe – Violence and Clashes Possible During Anti-Government May Day Unrest

EVENT On 1 May activists and anti-government protesters are expected to hold a ‘Kill The Bill’ National Day of Action across the United Kingdom, in protest at the controversial Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill. The anticipated demonstrations will fall on May Day, a traditional day for left-wing and anti-government protests, with numerous other demonstrations …

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ALERT: Russia – Harsh Crackdowns Likely as Opposition Brings Forward Nationwide Protests

EVENT On 18 April supporters of imprisoned opposition activist Alexei Navalny called for new nationwide protests to take place on 21 April, bringing forward their plans over concerns over Navalny’s rapidly deteriorating health. SIGNIFICANCE The announcement comes after nationwide protests were held across Russian in January following the return and subsequent arrest of Alexei Navalny …

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SUB: Gender Inequality and Covid-19

Key Takeaways  The Covid-19 pandemic is disproportionally impacting working women, with many taking on additional childcare, household and remote learning responsibilities. The financial toll from the absence of women contributing to the workforce could stunt GDP growth by over USD 1 trillion by 2030. However, if companies address gender imbalances worsened by the pandemic, global …

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SUB: China – New Development Strategy Sets Lofty Economic Ambitions in the Face of Persistent Geopolitical Challenges

Key Takeaways  China’s lawmakers and top political advisors are set to formally adopt the new socio-economic development blueprint that has already been drafted and endorsed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at the annual plenary meetings in Beijing. The 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) will guide development strategy and policy for the next five years, with …

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SUB: COVID-19 Vaccines: Challenges and Opportunities

Key Takeaways  Optimism around Covid-19 vaccine development is giving way to logistical challenges in actioning complex immunisation programmes. Facing delays and the risk of resurgent case rates on the back of new variants, governments will continue to implement restrictions to mitigate transmission of SARSCoV-2, the virus that causes the disease, Covid-19. The strength of economic …

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SUB: Japan & US – Renewed Bilateral Security Commitment Could Trigger Domestic Unrest and Sustain Tensions with Beijing

Key Takeaways  The agreement to extend the bilateral cost-sharing arrangement on US forces stationed in Japan has raised concerns over potential anti-US protests and unrest in Okinawa, given the significant opposition to US military presence among the local population. Most notably, the US military’s apparent disregard of the Covid-19 restrictions and perceived disruptive training activities …

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