Analysis

SUB: Assessment on the Fallout of the Pegasus Surveillance Scandal

/ Analysis, Situation Update Briefs / , ,

General Overview On 18 July, an investigation conducted by a consortium of international news organisations and human rights groups, including the Washington Post, Le Monde and Amnesty International, secured access to a leaked list of more than 50,000 phone numbers targeted for surveillance with Pegasus, a spyware tool developed by Israeli surveillance firm NSO Group. […]

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SUB: Extinction Rebellion Protests Will Bring Disruption To Urban Centres In August

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Background The environmentalist activist group Extinction Rebellion (XR) will hold various “Rebellions” this month in Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and the United Kingdom. As part of the August campaign, the group has planned significant action in Oslo (Norway) and Berlin (Germany) to last several days, known as the “Nordic” and “Central” Rebellions. Financial and oil

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SUB: Mercer Vessel Attack Accelerates Instability In Persian Gulf; Threatens Trajectory Of Iranian Nuclear Talks

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Key Takeaways The escalation of Israel and Iran’s “shadow war” threatens to destabilise already fragile political environments in the region, as both nations continue to utilise proxies to bolster influence. It is likely that tensions will intensify cross-border scuffles, particularly in parts of Lebanon and Syria, and flare relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

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SUB: Rising Water Insecurity Will Compound Regional Security Challenges

/ Analysis, Situation Update Briefs /

Key Takeaways On 26 July, the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture imposed a six-month ban on the export of certain agricultural products in a bid to relieve the growing pressure on the sector amid the worst drought seen in parts of Central Asia in over a decade. The development is the latest in a series of

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ALERT: France – Mandatory Vaccination Policy Sparks Anti-Vaccine Protests Nationwide

/ Alert, Analysis

EVENT In a nationwide televised address on 12 July, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a new package of measures intended to combat an emergent fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in France. The new measures include mandatory vaccination for all health sector workers, retirement home staff and some social care workers, and will make the

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ALERT: Haiti – President Jovenel Moïse Killed in Apparent Assassination

/ Alert, Analysis

EVENT On 7 July, President Jovenel Moïse was reportedly assassinated by a group of unidentified individuals in a targeted operation at his private residence around 0100 local time. The recently appointed Prime Minister Claude Joseph confirmed the assassination of the president and will now temporarily lead the Council of Ministers. Reports indicate that some of

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ASTRA: Policy Risk is Falling Sharply in North America and The Middle East, While Rising for the Rest of the World

/ Analysis, Report

https://www.sibylline.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/LinkedIn-Posts-.mp4 This data has been produced by ASTRA. Sibylline’s ASTRA (Aggregated Strategic Threat and Risk Assessment) software quantifies 32 risk factors for 249 countries, select cities, and sub-national regions with over six years of historical scores and trends available. The sharp improvement in policy risk in North America has accompanied the arrival of the Biden

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SUB: Israel – New Government Ends Economic Instability, but Tensions Over Key Policy Areas Remain

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Overview On 13 June, the Knesset voted in a new coalition government, officially ending former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s 12 consecutive years in power. Leader of the ultra-right-wing Yamina party, Naftali Bennett, and leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party, Yair Lapid, successfully formed a government consisting of Arab, left-wing and nationalist parties, representing one

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SUB: US Power Grid Protection and Infrastructure Developments

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Key Takeaways In April, the Biden administration launched a 100-day plan to upgrade power grid cyber security through a series of voluntary initiatives and the establishment of an incentive-based framework to catalyse public-private partnerships, which aim to mitigate emerging threats and security vulnerabilities. Notably however, several high-profile cyber-attacks have curtailed the Biden administration’s push to

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ALERT: Belarus – Diversion of Civilian Flight Reflects Mounting Risk of Physical Threats to Foreign Firms

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EVENT On 23 May Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka ordered a MiG-29 to escort a Ryanair passenger flight to Minsk in order to arrest a wanted domestic critic who was onboard. The Ryanair flight between Athens and Vilnius, which was carrying 172 passengers, was ordered to divert to Minsk over an alleged bomb threat, but no

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