Refined Insight: Sibylline's Monthly Digest

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The Global Overview

MAY 2024

A note from our Head of Global Intelligence, Gareth Westwood

As we fast approach the midpoint of 2024, Sibylline’s Global Intelligence Team (GIT) has been hard at work preparing for our Mid-Year Forecast. I look forward to seeing as many of you as possible during the series of in-person and online events. 

The Israel-Hamas war continues to be a prime concern for many of our clients, and this month’s escalation discussion points have made for a busy Middle East and Africa desk. Elsewhere, the likelihood of an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operation into Rafa continues to mount, while the ongoing conflict in Ethiopia led to serious clashes on 13 April. 

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A Special Report published by our Europe-Eurasia desk examined Islamist extremism and its proliferation throughout Europe. Terrorism will continue to act as a key risk in the run-up to various high profile public events across the continent. In addition, protests linked to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war continue to pose significant operational risks for organisations and individuals, particularly in Western Europe. While the desk continues to monitor the situation in Ukraine closely, the Crocus Hall terror attack in Moscow (Russia) was a stark reminder of the extremism threat gripping the region. 

An earthquake in Taiwan was one of the key events to occupy our Asia-Pacific desk. Overall, the damage and scale of disruption remained mostly limited despite the earthquake’s magnitude. Elsewhere, an election in South Korea resulted in an opposition victory, while the Maldives’ incumbent President Mohamed Muizzu won the country’s legislative elections in a landslide. 

Our Americas desk has underscored potential government stability risks following the passing of a bill pertaining to aid for Ukraine. The desk has also detailed current protest activity relating to the Israel-Hamas war, citing significant disruption at affected university campuses. Gang violence continues to pose severe security risks in Haiti, while compliance risks have escalated in Venezuela due to the US government’s decision to revoke the general license for purchases of oil and gas. 

Our Latest Insights

Our Global Analysis reporting is part of our World Risk Register subscription, for access to all our reporting please contact us via the link below.

ASTRA API
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Thought Leadership

MAY 2024

  • What’s in a Name? Defining What we do for the Wider Audience
  • Intelligence and the Private Sector: Demystifying the Landscape
  • How Sibylline’s embedded services stand out in the security and intelligence sector
  • Embracing Imperfection: Israel-Hamas and the reality of intelligence estimation
  • Embedded Services in the Security Industry – what you should consider when building your security program.
  • Building the Intelligence Function: Seven Potholes on the Road to Success

Announcements & Updates

MAY 2024

Sibylline's Interactive Risk Globe

MAY 2024

This year’s annual forecast is built on Sibylline’s Strategic Risk Register – an index of 100 key risks that our analysts monitor around the clock, in order to assess potential impacts on organisations, individuals and business operations.

This interactive risk globe allows you to filter by region or primary ASTRA risk outcome, as well as seeing relative ASTRA risk for each country.

By selecting a region, you will be able to visualise key risks and the primary affected country. Click on the description, and the remaining affected countries will be highlighted, allowing you to effectively map risk.

You can also navigate by primary ASTRA risk outcome, whether Criminality, Security, Political or Governance.

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